Apologies for the corny title, all the hyperbole about Gareth Bale over the last few weeks in press is obviously having an effect on me. Along with the over excitement, there has also been numerous Bale related stats that have been mentioned in the press and on twitter at various points, including the following;
- “Gareth Bale has scored 10 goals in his last 12 Premier League appearances”
- “Gareth Bale is 1st for PL shots on target this season (51)”
- “No player has scored more Premier League goals in 2013 than Gareth Bale”
- “Gareth Bale has scored each of Tottenham's last five PL goals”
- “Gareth Bale: Has now scored Tottenham's last 6 goals in all competitions”, and
- “Gareth Bale has been directly involved in 80% of Spurs’ goals in all competitions so far in 2013 (9 goals & 3 assists)”
So despite the hyperbole, it’s
fair to say Bale is currently in the best form of his career. Looking at his
output in the League, he has scored 15 goals in 11 games so far, of those 11
games, 6 were won by a single goal, 2 of which he scored 2 goals in, and one
other was a draw, so those goals have been very important. Whilst it would be
too simplistic to say that he has won them 15 points, it’s clear that he is playing
a significant role, especially when you consider that he has had 22% of their
shots, 29% of their shots on target, and 34% of their goals.
A look at Tottenham’s
conversion rates also shows Bale’s outperformance compared to the rest of the
squad. We can also see that the rest of the team are not only performing worse
than the average of the top 4 teams last season, but also worse than the
average of all the teams last season (I have used last season as it’s a
complete season with all teams having played each other, and with Tottenham
currently in the top 4, comparing to this season’s top 4 would be a bit
circular with them in it).
Conversion rates exclude own goals. Shooting Accuracy excludes blocked shots. Chance = A shot on or off target, excluding blocked shots. CCC = Clear Cut Chance
However, there is nothing wrong
with relying on one player if that player is an outstanding attacking talent,
as it could be foolhardy not to. Suarez has taken up that role at Liverpool for
most of this season, van Persie also did at Arsenal last season, and despite
the quality of players throughout their squads, it can be argued that both Barcelona and Real Madrid
rely on Messi and Ronaldo from a goal scoring perspective.
What should be of greater
concern for Tottenham is the quality of the chances they have been creating and
the narrow margins in which they have recently been winning. Positively, their
shooting accuracy is the 2nd highest in the league this season, behind only
Manchester United, and due to also having the 2nd highest shots per game, they
have actually fired more shots on target this season than any other team. But
digging deeper, we also see that they are the team with the highest proportion
of shots taken from outside of the area this season at 55%. Tottenham like to
break quickly using their pace and are one of the best counter attacking teams
in the league, and the number of shots taken from outside the area could be as
a consequence of teams sitting back, denying them the space to break into, and
they are then lacking the creativity to get in behind the lines. The fact that
when playing at home they are taking 60% of shots from outside at the box, and
they have scored 7 more goals away from home than they have at home backs up
this point of view. Other indications that they are creating poor quality
shooting opportunities are that they rank 2nd lowest in terms of Clean Cut
Chances as a proportion of total chances. Consequently they only rank 7th in
terms of the number of clean cut chances per game.
However despite the number
of more difficult chances they attempt, they are relatively good at them. Prior
to the last round of games, they had the highest shooting accuracy in the
league for shots from outside the area, although it probably helps that Bale is
actually as accurate from outside the area as he is from inside, as shown in
this blog from Squawka. In terms of conversion of those attempts from outside
the area, they have scored the most in the league with 11, although this is a
product of taking significantly more shots than anyone else. When you look at
their conversion rate of shots from outside of the area it is only 4%, however
this is still relatively good, when you take free kicks out of the equation,
they score 1 goal for every 27.4 shots from outside the area, which compares
favourably to the rate of 1 to 33 for all shots from outside the area since the
beginning of last season as calculated by the Differentgame’s SPAM analysis. Tottenham
are also slightly above average this season in terms of the conversion of
chances that are not clear cut, with a rate of 8.1%, which ranks 6th in the
league.
On the face of it, Tottenham
are carrying some good form, having been unbeaten in 11 league games. However that
run included 7 of the bottom 9 teams, and the last 6 games in the League has
seen them outscored by 11 other teams and a positive goal difference of
only 3. They have also left getting their results until late in the game
recently. In their last 8 games in all competitions, they have scored 4 goals
to win or equalise until the 90th minute or later, with a further 2 goals
getting results coming after the 75th minute. Whilst this may be a sign of
increasing mental fortitude and give them the confidence that they can always
get a result, there is a risk that if they continue to leave themselves chasing
the game into the closing stages, that the bounce of the ball does not go their
way.
Obviously football is about
defence as well as attack, and Tottenham’s defence is clearly playing very well
having conceded the fewest goals in the league in those last 11 league games
and conceded fewer shots than any other team so far this season. But they are
about to start their most difficult run of games this season, facing 6 of the
top 9 in their next 7 games, and whilst the teams they are playing should have a more expansive style of football, possibly giving Tottenham more space to
play their natural game, they may need Bale to continue his rich vein of form
if they are to get the wins needed to remain in the top 4.
Data taken from www.eplindex.com, www.whoscored.com, & www.squawka.com
Data taken from www.eplindex.com, www.whoscored.com, & www.squawka.com
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